Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,123$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(113 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(0.362 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(42.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,390$ on 2020-06-05

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,935$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(855 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,181.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.6)}}\) (asimptote \(12,181.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $690$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(141 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{617.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(617.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,792$ on 2020-06-05

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,434$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(460 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{746,036.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 131.3)}}\) (asimptote \(746,036.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $908$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(19.1 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,829.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 103.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,829.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,438$ on 2020-06-05

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,764$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(61.6 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,483.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 94.2)}}\) (asimptote \(13,483.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $81$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(9.75 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 60.7)}}\) (asimptote \(115.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,171$ on 2020-06-05

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,115$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(508 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{345,620.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 129.1)}}\) (asimptote \(345,620.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,166$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(84 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,953.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 71.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,953.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,791$ on 2020-06-05

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,101$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(38.3 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,721.1}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 64.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,721.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(0.66 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 69.0)}}\) (asimptote \(30.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-05

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $883$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(0.194 \times 10^{0.053t}\) (doubling rate \(5.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,761.0}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 70.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,761.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(0.00593 \times 10^{0.057t}\) (doubling rate \(5.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{192.4}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 76.4)}}\) (asimptote \(192.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $771$ on 2020-06-05

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $536$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(25.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{518.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 53.6)}}\) (asimptote \(518.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5$ on 2020-06-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $292$ on 2020-06-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Niger recovered 93%
Morocco recovered 82%
Chad recovered 72%
Algeria recovered 12%

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $966$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(380 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{921.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 15.7)}}\) (asimptote \(921.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(12.5 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{72.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(72.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38$ on 2020-06-05

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,071$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,179.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,179.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $208$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(71 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{196.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 20.9)}}\) (asimptote \(196.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $595$ on 2020-06-05

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $836$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(68 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{861.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(861.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $68$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(19.2 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65.5}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 13.4)}}\) (asimptote \(65.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $111$ on 2020-06-05